Market Data
The June 2024 National Assembly Dissolution: A Decision Marked by Controversy
The dissolution of the National Assembly in June 2024 stands out as one of the most contentious decisions in the history of France’s Fifth Republic. This move, initiated by President Emmanuel Macron, has sparked widespread confusion and debate among citizens, politicians, and analysts alike. The annual Political Trust Barometer, conducted by the Institute OpinionWay for the Center for Political Research at Sciences Po (Cevipof), highlights the profound impact of this decision on French society. The survey, which included France, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands, was conducted between January 17 and February 5, 2025, just one month after François Bayrou took office as Prime Minister. The findings reveal a nation grappling with political instability, economic uncertainty, and a growing crisis of confidence in its leaders and democratic institutions.
Unprecedented Consequences for French Society
The effects of Macron’s decision to dissolve the National Assembly have been far-reaching and unprecedented. The resulting government instability has created an environment of economic uncertainty, complicating the political landscape and undermining the legitimacy of France’s rulers. Since June 9, 2024, the country has experienced a steady erosion of trust in its political representatives and the democratic system as a whole. This period has left an indelible mark on the collective psyche of the French people, fostering a sense of disillusionment and pessimism that persists to this day. The survey underscores the depth of this crisis, painting a picture of a nation in disarray compared to its European neighbors.
A Nation in Crisis: France’s slide into Pessimism
The Political Trust Barometer portrays France as an "island of pessimism" within Europe. Compared to the previous year, more French citizens expressed feelings of mistrust (45%), weariness (40%), and gloom (30%) regarding their current state of mind. Additionally, fear (18%) has increased, reflecting a growing sense of unease among the population. These sentiments stand in stark contrast to the more optimistic outlooks observed in neighboring countries such as Germany and Italy. While political challenges have arisen elsewhere, including the collapse of Germany’s tripartite coalition under Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the French appear uniquely affected by their current circumstances.
A Widening Gap in Political Trust Across Europe
The survey reveals a significant gap in political trust between France and its neighboring countries. While 74% of French respondents expressed distrust in their political leaders—an increase of 4 percentage points from the previous year—other nations such as Germany (47%) and Italy (39%) have seen a decline in political distrust. This divergence highlights the unique challenges France faces in restoring faith in its political system. Even in Germany, where the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party could have contributed to political instability, a third of those surveyed maintained a sense of serenity. This contrasts sharply with the widespread disillusionment observed in France.
The Role of Leadership and the Path Forward
The arrival of François Bayrou as Prime Minister in February 2025 has introduced a new dynamic into France’s political landscape. However, the survey suggests that the damage to public trust may be difficult to repair in the short term. The dissolution of the National Assembly and the ensuing political chaos have created a challenging environment for any leader to navigate. As the French people continue to grapple with feelings of mistrust and pessimism, the incoming government will need to prioritize transparency, accountability, and policies that address the root causes of this crisis. Only through such measures can France begin to rebuild confidence in its leaders and its democratic system.
The Broader Implications for European Democracy
The findings of the Political Trust Barometer extend beyond France’s borders, offering insights into the state of democracy across Europe. While France stands out as a nation in crisis, the survey also highlights the resilience of democratic institutions in other countries. The rise of far-right movements, such as the AfD in Germany, serves as a reminder of the challenges facing democracies worldwide. However, the ability of countries like Germany and Italy to maintain relative stability and public trust underscores the importance of effective leadership and robust democratic frameworks. As France seeks to address its current challenges, the lessons from its neighbors may serve as a valuable guide in restoring faith in its political system and ensuring the longevity of its democratic traditions.
