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Strengthening EU and NATO Cooperation to Protect Critical Energy Infrastructure
The European Union and NATO face an urgent need to bolster their cooperation to safeguard critical energy infrastructure from increasing threats. The Baltic Sea, often referred to as a "NATO lake," has become a focal point for these efforts, as it is a vital waterway for energy security in the region. The Kremlin, with its history of weaponizing energy resources, remains a primary suspect in recent attacks on energy infrastructure. The synchronization of the Baltic states’ energy systems with the European grid, completed in February, marks a significant milestone in reducing dependence on post-Soviet energy systems. However, this transition has been overshadowed by a series of incidents in the Baltic Sea, underscoring the need for enhanced protection of critical infrastructure, including the LitPol Link, a power connection between Poland and Lithuania. Poland and the Baltic states are intensifying their preparations to ensure the security and resilience of these systems.
The synchronization process, scheduled for February 8-9, involves disconnecting the Baltic states from the post-Soviet BRELL system, which includes Belarus and Russia, and aligning their energy systems with the European grid. This move is crucial for energy independence and regional stability. Despite challenges, such as the damage to the Estlink 2 cable connecting Finland and Estonia, the Baltic states have sufficient cross-border capacity through other connectors like Estlink 1, NordBalt, and LitPol Link to proceed with synchronization. Energy ministers from Poland and the Baltic states emphasized during a meeting in Riga that the damage to Estlink 2 has not hindered the ability of the Baltic states to disconnect from the BRELL system and integrate with the European grid.
Enhancing Security Measures to Counter Malign Activity
The security of critical infrastructure remains a top priority, as malign activities, particularly from Russia, pose a persistent threat. Poland’s Ministry of Climate and Environment has highlighted the importance of a well-secured energy system, especially in light of Russia’s deliberate destruction of Ukraine’s power grid and its hybrid activities in the Baltic Sea. To address these threats, Poland and the Baltic states are stepping up the protection of the LitPol Link and other critical infrastructure. For instance, Lithuania’s Interior Ministry accelerated the strengthening of the LitPol Link cable’s protection, moving the timeline from April to January 15, 2025, following the damage to Estlink 2.
Poland’s Transmission System Operator (PSE) has also been working to enhance the security of transmission infrastructure, collaborating with national services, neighboring countries, and regional operators. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a state of heightened readiness has been maintained, with continuous monitoring of infrastructure and interconnections with Lithuania, Sweden, and Ukraine. New measures to boost physical security are being implemented, and discussions are underway to launch joint projects with EU funding to further strengthen regional infrastructure protection.
Addressing Disinformation and Ensuring Public Awareness
Beyond physical threats, disinformation campaigns targeting the synchronization process have emerged as a growing concern. Baltic operators have reported the spread of false narratives, including claims that disconnecting from the BRELL system would significantly increase electricity costs. These narratives, likely promoted by malign actors, aim to sow fear and undermine public confidence in the transition. However, studies have shown that the average increase in energy prices for consumers would be minimal—around 50 cents per month in Lithuania, 60 cents in Estonia, and one euro in Latvia. These increases are far outweighed by the benefits of energy independence from Russia and market coupling with Europe, which is expected to promote price stability.
To counter disinformation, participants in the Riga meeting urged the public to critically evaluate information and avoid spreading unverified reports. Energy system operators in Poland and the Baltic states have been instructed by their governments to implement urgent measures to enhance the security of critical energy infrastructure. These efforts are essential to maintaining public trust and ensuring the success of the synchronization process.
The Broader Strategic Imperative for EU and NATO
The increasing frequency of attacks on critical infrastructure, such as the recent incident involving the undersea cable between Latvia and Gotland, highlights the complexity of attributing blame in a deeply interconnected world. While some incidents may appear accidental, the sheer number of such events since Russia’s aggression against Ukraine began suggests a more deliberate pattern. The West must take proactive steps to address these challenges and protect collective security. The Baltic Sea, as a NATO-controlled waterway, must be properly secured to safeguard energy and economic interests in the region.
The EU and NATO must develop new tools and strategies to counter these emerging threats. This includes strengthening regional infrastructure, enhancing surveillance and monitoring capabilities, and improving international cooperation to address hybrid threats. The synchronization of the Baltic states’ energy systems with the European grid is not only a technical achievement but also a strategic milestone in the region’s quest for energy independence and security.
The Urgent Need for EU Action on Russian LNG
As the EU and NATO work to strengthen energy security, another pressing issue looms: the need to ban Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG). Europe’s window to impose meaningful measures on Russian fossil fuels is rapidly closing, particularly as the possibility of a second Trump administration in the United States grows. President Donald Trump’s previous policies and rhetoric suggest that he may disrupt or roll back sanctions on Russian energy exports, making it imperative for Europe to act swiftly.
The synchronization process and the integration of the Baltic states into the European energy system underscore the importance of reducing dependence on Russian energy. However, the EU must also address the broader issue of Russian LNG exports, which remain a significant source of revenue for the Kremlin. By banning Russian LNG, Europe can further weaken Russia’s ability to finance its aggression while accelerating the transition to cleaner, more sustainable energy sources. Time is of the essence, and the EU must act decisively to ensure energy security and uphold its commitment to isolating Russia economically.
In conclusion, the protection of critical energy infrastructure and the synchronization of the Baltic states’ energy systems with the European grid are critical steps toward enhancing regional security and resilience. However, these efforts must be complemented by broader strategies to counter malign activity, address disinformation, and reduce dependence on Russian energy. The EU and NATO must act with urgency and unity to safeguard their collective interests and ensure a stable energy future.
