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A Delicate Balancing Act: King Abdullah II’s Meeting with President Trump
King Abdullah II of Jordan is no stranger to navigating complex geopolitical landscapes. In July 2021, during his first meeting with President Joseph R. Biden Jr., he was warmly received as a steadfast American ally, a critical bulwark for stability in the Middle East. President Biden acknowledged the challenges of Jordan’s neighborhood, remarking, “You live in a tough neighborhood.” However, as King Abdullah prepares to meet with President Trump, the dynamics appear far more fraught. This time, Washington may prove to be the tougher neighborhood, as President Trump’s recent statements have put Jordan in a precarious position.
President Trump has reignited a controversial plan to expel Palestinians from the Gaza Strip, suggesting that the United States could "own" the territory. He has also floated the idea of slashing aid to Jordan and Egypt if they refuse to accept an estimated 1.9 million Palestinians from Gaza. Both Jordan and Egypt emphatically rejected this proposal when it was first raised, leaving King Abdullah in a difficult dilemma. On one hand, refusing Trump’s demands could jeopardize the over $1.5 billion in annual U.S. foreign aid that Jordan relies on, including a classified stream of funding for its intelligence services. On the other hand, acquiescing to such a plan would be politically and morally untenable for the king, given that more than half of Jordan’s population of 12 million people is of Palestinian descent.
The Existential Stakes for King Abdullah
Middle East experts warn that King Abdullah’s survival depends on his ability to resist Trump’s plan. “King Abdullah cannot go along with it,” said Paul Salem of the Middle East Institute in Washington. “He cannot survive the idea that he’s colluding on the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians.” For the king, this is not just a political issue but an existential one. Jordan’s ruling Hashemite family has long positioned itself as a champion of Palestinian rights, and any perception of complicity in their displacement could undermine the monarchy’s legitimacy.
Moreover, King Abdullah is expected to use his meeting with Trump to push back against Israel’s potential annexation of the West Bank, a move that far-right members of Israel’s government and some Trump appointees have openly advocated. The West Bank borders Jordan, and any Israeli annexation could trigger violence and unrest that could spill into Jordan. Already, Jordan hosts approximately 700,000 refugees, most of them Syrians fleeing their country’s civil war. The kingdom lacks the resources of oil-rich neighbors and is heavily dependent on American aid, making its position even more vulnerable.
Jordan’s Strategic Importance to the United States
Despite the challenges, Jordan remains a vital partner for the United States in the Middle East. The kingdom has long allowed U.S. troops access to its military bases, and its intelligence services have received secret CIA funding for decades, a relationship that began during the reign of King Abdullah’s father, King Hussein. King Abdullah has worked tirelessly to maintain close ties with the U.S. government, positioning himself as the first Arab leader to meet with every new president. However, American aid to Jordan, including military assistance, is currently frozen as part of the Trump administration’s broader halt on foreign assistance. The USAID office in Jordan is also being closed, further complicating the relationship.
Bruce Riedel, a former top CIA analyst on the Middle East, notes that King Abdullah is likely to leverage his strong relationships with the Pentagon, the CIA, and Congress to caution Trump against his plan for Gaza. The king’s meeting with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Sunday suggests an effort to shore up support within the U.S. government. Jordan also has significant backing on Capitol Hill, including from Republican lawmakers.
The Saudi Connection and Regional Implications
If Trump decides to cut funding to Jordan over its refusal to comply with his Gaza plan, King Abdullah may need to seek new patrons. Wealthy Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which have also opposed Trump’s plan, could step in as potential donors. However, Saudi Arabia has made it clear that any normalization of relations with Israel must be contingent on concrete steps toward an independent Palestinian state. Trump’s Middle East agenda, including his long-sought “grand deal” involving Saudi recognition of Israel, could be derailed if he proceeds with his Gaza plan.
King Abdullah may thus find himself in a unique position to influence Trump’s approach. By emphasizing Jordan’s role as a key player in regional stability and its potential to help facilitate broader Arab-Israeli relations, the king could persuade Trump to revisit his priorities. If successful, this diplomatic effort could not only safeguard Jordan’s interests but also pave the way for a more sustainable and inclusive peace in the Middle East.
The Human Cost of Geopolitical Gambits
At the heart of this diplomatic standoff are the lives of millions of Palestinians, whose fate hangs precariously in the balance. Trump’s plan to expel Palestinians from Gaza and transfer them to Jordan or Egypt would have catastrophic consequences, exacerbating an already dire humanitarian crisis. For Palestinians, the prospect of being uprooted once again is a grim reminder of their decades-long displacement and statelessness.
For Jordan, absorbing such a large influx of refugees would strain its already overburdened resources, exacerbate social tensions, and potentially destabilize the kingdom. The monarchy, which has long walked a fine line between maintaining ties with the U.S. and addressing the aspirations of its Palestinian population, would face an unprecedented challenge. The king’s ability to navigate this crisis while preserving Jordan’s stability and sovereignty will depend on his diplomatic acumen and the support of both his allies in Washington and partners in the region.
Looking Ahead: A Fragile Road Ahead
As King Abdullah prepares to meet with President Trump, the stakes could not be higher. The king must navigate a treacherous landscape where he is forced to choose betweenalienating a critical ally or compromising the principles that underpin his rule. While Jordan has weathered many storms in the past, the current challenge is uniquely daunting. The kingdom’s reliance on U.S. aid, its strategic importance to American interests, and its historical role as a refuge for displaced populations all converge to make this moment pivotal.
In the face of such uncertainty, King Abdullah’s ability to draw on his decades of experience and his deep connections in Washington will be critical. His success in advocating for Palestinian rights while maintaining Jordan’s fragile stability will not only determine the future of his kingdom but also shape the broader trajectory of peace and conflict in the Middle East. As the meeting with Trump approaches, the world watches closely, aware that the choices made in this delicate diplomatic dance will reverberate far beyond the Oval Office.
