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Flu Deaths Surpass COVID-19 for the First Time Since the Pandemic
For the first time since the pandemic began, more people in the U.S. have died from influenza than from COVID-19, according to the latest figures from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). In the week ending on January 25, 2023, nearly 1.7% of all deaths nationwide were attributed to the flu, compared to roughly 1.5% due to COVID-19. This shift marks a significant change in the public health landscape, reflecting the resurgence of influenza and the waning impact of COVID-19. The CDC’s partial data for the week ending on February 1, 2023, suggests that influenza deaths may have reached as high as 2% of all deaths, further surpassing the 1.5% attributed to COVID-19. More complete data is expected to be published on Friday, but the trend is clear: influenza is currently a more pressing concern than COVID-19 in terms of mortality.
Regional Disparities in Flu and COVID-19 Deaths
The gap between flu and COVID-19 deaths is particularly pronounced in certain regions of the country. In 22 states, the rate of influenza deaths has consistently outpaced those from COVID-19 throughout the first five weeks of 2023. The disparity is most notable in states like California, Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, and Wyoming, where the percentage of weekly deaths from flu is at least double that from COVID-19. This regional trend underscores the uneven impact of influenza and highlights the need for targeted public health interventions.
The Severity of the Current Flu Season
Health officials track the percentage of weekly deaths as an early indicator of trends in flu and COVID-19 mortality, as it takes several weeks for all deaths to be confirmed and counted. The CDC’s modelers estimate that between 13,000 and 65,000 flu deaths have occurred so far this season, a range that has already surpassed the total influenza deaths for all of last season. This is also a higher range than the 18,000 to 31,000 deaths from COVID-19 that the CDC estimates have occurred this winter. The current flu season’s severity is comparable to some of the highest rates seen since the peak of the swine flu pandemic in 2009, with "very high" levels of influenza activity in 33 states and the District of Columbia.
Comparing Flu and COVID-19 Trends
Despite the resurgence of influenza, the current COVID-19 wave has been smaller than previous surges, as measured by emergency room visits and hospitalizations. No new highly mutated variant of the virus has emerged to drive a major surge of infections, unlike several previous waves. Additionally, vaccination rates among older adults, who are more vulnerable to severe disease, have outpaced previous seasons. This combination of factors has contributed to a more controlled and less severe COVID-19 wave compared to earlier periods of the pandemic.
The Importance of Flu Vaccination
In contrast to the relatively stable trend in COVID-19, influenza activity has been climbing to some of the highest rates seen in years. CDC data indicates that influenza vaccinations have lagged in some age groups, particularly in children. Less than 45% of children in the U.S. have received a flu shot, down from more than 58% at this time in 2020. CDC spokesperson Paul Prince emphasized the importance of getting vaccinated, stating, "Anyone who has not been vaccinated for flu this season should get vaccinated immediately. Flu activity remains elevated and continues to increase across the country." Prince also noted that several factors can impact flu activity, including the circulating flu viruses and the immunity people have from prior infections and vaccinations.
Looking Forward: Preparing for an Elevated Flu Season
While the severity of the flu season cannot be reliably predicted and can vary from year to year, it is expected to see elevated and increasing flu activity during this time of year. The CDC’s recommendations include not only getting vaccinated but also staying informed about local flu activity and taking preventive measures such as frequent handwashing and avoiding close contact with sick individuals. As the flu season continues, public health officials will closely monitor trends and provide updates to help guide individuals and communities in their efforts to stay healthy.
