EU Commissioner’s Vision for a ‘Big Bang’ in European Defence: A Path Forward

Introduction to the ‘Big Bang’ Approach

The European Union (EU) is at a crossroads in its defence strategy, with Commissioner for Defence and Space Andrius Kubilius championing a bold vision—a "Big Bang" approach to revolutionize the bloc’s defence industry. This ambitious plan aims to transform the EU’s military capabilities in response to escalating global threats, particularly the spectre of a Russian attack on one of its 27 member states. By 19 March, Kubilius is expected to unveil the "White Paper on European Defence," outlining measures to prepare the EU for both immediate military crises and long-term security challenges. Analysts and experts agree that "business as usual" in defence is no longer viable, and the white paper must address critical questions about Europe’s response to a potential reduction in US support for Ukraine and European security.

The Funding Challenge: Bridging the Defence Investment Gap

Funding remains a significant hurdle in achieving this vision. Mario Draghi’s competitiveness report estimates that the EU will require approximately €500 billion over the next decade to maintain its global defence competitiveness. However, member states’ defence budgets are already strained, with only 23 out of 27 EU countries meeting NATO’s 2% GDP defence spending target. Riho Terras, an Estonian MEP and vice-chairman of the Parliament’s security and defence committee, argues that the EU needs to establish a new spending threshold of at least 3% of GDP. Kubilius has proposed allocating €100 billion for defence investment in the next Multiannual Financial Framework (2028-2034), a significant increase from the €15 billion dedicated to security and defence in the previous cycle (2021-2027).

To address the funding shortfall, creative solutions are being explored. Kubilius has suggested the issuance of "defence bonds," inspired by the COVID-19 recovery instruments, and the reallocation of unused funds. Other options include revising European Investment Bank (EIB) lending rules and simplifying EU procurement regulations. Poland’s foreign affairs minister has also proposed the creation of a "rearmament bank" to mobilize resources for defence capabilities. The success of such measures will depend on the EU’s ability to demonstrate the same level of financial mobilization it showed during the COVID-19 pandemic, when it allocated €700 billion for recovery efforts.

Addressing Industry Fragmentation and Building a Unified Defence Strategy

The European defence industry faces significant structural challenges, including fragmentation and a lack of standardization. MEP Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann emphasizes the need for greater standardization and joint procurement to address capability gaps. The EU aims to increase joint defence procurement from 18% in 2022 to at least 35% by 2030. However, achieving this goal will require overcoming nationalistic tendencies and fostering a collective effort among member states. Industry leaders are calling for an Industrial Output Plan that translates capability needs into concrete targets, specifying quantities and timelines. This plan would enable economies of scale, attract private sector investment, and ensure long-term procurement and investment commitments.

Terras highlights the need for the Commission to address the fragmented nature of the defence industry, which is exempt from internal market rules, and the reluctance of the banking sector to lend to defence industries. A unified approach to defence procurement and production is essential to enhance the EU’s military capabilities and competitiveness on the global stage.

Research and Development: The Key to Future Defence Capabilities

Investment in research and development (R&D) is critical to maintaining Europe’s global competitiveness in defence. In 2023, EU member states allocated around €11 billion for defence R&D, with nearly €4 billion designated for defence technology investment. The European Defence Fund (EDF) was established with an €8 billion budget for 2021-2027, including €2.7 billion for collaborative defence research. However, the defence sector faces significant regulatory and administrative barriers to cross-border innovation. Daniel Fiott, a professor at the Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy (VUB), stresses the need to break down these barriers and explore novel financing sources for R&D. He notes that while defence R&D is costly, dual-use technologies offer broad societal benefits that could attract private sector investment.

The EU must also address the growing gap in space sector investments. The head of the European Space Agency (ESA) warns that the US is outpacing Europe in space investment, which could have far-reaching implications for defence and security. A strong public investment in space technologies is essential to maintaining Europe’s leadership in this domain.

Strengthening the Link Between Defence and Space

The space and defence industries face similar challenges, and Commissioner Kubilius is calling for a coordinated approach to address these issues. Speaking at the 17th Space Conference in Brussels, he emphasized the importance of using space technologies for military defence, particularly in the areas of intelligence, geolocation, and communication. The conflict in Ukraine has underscored the critical role of space-based intelligence in modern warfare, prompting the EU to strengthen its intelligence structures and capabilities. Kubilius is also advocating for the establishment of a European space domain awareness system to monitor threats, including military threats.

The EU is actively implementing several key strategies, including the EU Space Strategy for Security and Defence, the EU Space Industrial Strategy, the European Space Shield, and IRIS2. Kubilius has also highlighted the need for a long-term vision for European launch capabilities to ensure the bloc’s autonomy in space. "Europe has built a unique presence in space that serves all humanity. We must defend it from any aggressor," he declared.

Conclusion: A Unified Vision for European Defence

The EU’s defence strategy is at a pivotal moment, with Commissioner Kubilius’s "Big Bang" approach offering a bold vision for transformation. The white paper on European defence must provide clear answers to critical questions about Europe’s ability to respond to emerging threats, both independently and in partnership with allies like the US. Achieving this vision will require significant investment, greater standardization, and a unified approach to defence procurement and R&D. The EU must also leverage its strengths in the space sector to enhance its military capabilities and global competitiveness.

As the bloc navigates this complex landscape, the lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic offer a blueprint for mobilizing resources in the face of existential threats. The Russian aggression in Ukraine has served as a stark reminder of the need for European unity and strategic autonomy. The success of the "Big Bang" approach will depend on the EU’s ability to overcome institutional and nationalistic barriers and work towards a common goal—a stronger, more resilient Europe capable of defending itself and its values on the global stage.