Ecuador’s Runoff Election: A Clash of Ideologies and Visions for the Future

The Stage is Set: A Repeat of 2023’s Battle

Ecuador is bracing for a high-stakes presidential runoff in April, as the nation grapples with the enduring legacy of former President Rafael Correa. The election pits two starkly different candidates against each other: Luisa González, a loyal protégée of Correa, and Daniel Noboa, the conservative incumbent. Neither managed to secure an outright majority in the first-round vote on Sunday, but both outpaced the other 14 candidates by a significant margin. With only a percentage point separating them, the runoff promises to be a nail-biter. This contest is a repeat of the 2023 snap election, which saw Noboa rise to power after the dissolution of the National Assembly. His presidency has been marked by efforts to tackle the escalating crime wave, a issue that continues to dominate the political landscape.

The Weight of Correismo: Nostalgia vs. Criticism

At the heart of this election lies the enduring influence of Correismo, the political movement shaped by Rafael Correa during his presidency from 2007 to 2017. Luisa González is banking on the nostalgia for an era marked by low crime rates and unemployment, as well as the expansive social policies that defined Correa’s tenure. However, this nostalgia comes with a caveat. Many voters are willing to overlook Correa’s authoritarian tendencies, the massive debt he accumulated, and the corruption charges that led to his conviction in absentia in 2020.

Support for Correismo is not universal, and the runoff has become as much about rejecting the past as it is about embracing it. Voters are divided, with some yearning for the stability of Correa’s era while others remain wary of its pitfalls. This divide is evident even among Noboa’s supporters, many of whom admit their vote is less an endorsement of his policies than a rejection of Correismo.

A President Under Scrutiny: Noboa’s Challenges

Daniel Noboa’s tenure has been marred by controversy, particularly his handling of the energy crisis and his aggressive approach to crime. In 2023, Noboa authorized power cuts that lasted up to 14 hours a day, blaming severe drought conditions. However, the government failed to provide data to support this claim, leading to widespread skepticism. The cuts had a devastating impact on businesses, with trade associations estimating losses at $7.5 billion.

Noboa’s militarized approach to combatting drug trafficking has also drawn criticism. In January 2024, he declared a state of war against drug gangs, a move that saw significant military mobilization. Critics argue that this approach has overstepped legal boundaries, raising concerns about the erosion of democratic norms. Additionally, his decision to authorize a police raid on Mexico’s embassy to arrest former Vice President Jorge Glas has been widely condemned, both domestically and internationally.

The Runoff: A Battle for Swing Voters

The tight margin between Noboa and González highlights the polarized nature of Ecuadorian politics. With 92.1% of the votes counted, Noboa secured 44.31%, while González trailed closely with 43.83%. The remaining candidates lagged far behind, leaving little doubt about the two frontrunners. The runoff will now hinge on their ability to court swing voters, particularly those who are either undecided or belong to smaller political movements, such as the indigenous-led party of Leonidas Iza, who finished a distant third in the first round.

Both candidates face significant challenges in expanding their support bases. Noboa must address concerns about his authoritarian tendencies and reassure voters of his commitment to democratic governance. At the same time, he cannot afford to alienate his base by moderating his stance. González, on the other hand, must convince voters that Correismo can adapt to the challenges of the present without reverting to the excesses of the past. Experts like Grace Jaramillo, a regional analyst at the University of British Columbia, argue that Noboa’s inability to broaden his appeal beyond anti-Correismo voters has left him vulnerable. Meanwhile, Correismo’s loyal base must mobilize more effectively, as past elections have shown that its support tends to wane in runoffs.

Crime, Governance, and the Fight for Public Trust

Crime remains the top concern for Ecuadorian voters, as the nation continues to grapple with a surge in violence linked to drug trafficking. Under Noboa’s leadership, the homicide rate has declined from 46.18 per 100,000 people in 2023 to 38.76 in 2024. However, this rate remains far higher than the 6.85 recorded in 2019, and other crimes such as kidnapping and extortion have skyrocketed, leaving many Ecuadorians fearful for their safety.

Noboa’s heavy-handed approach to crime has drawn both praise and criticism. While some credit his policies for the reduction in homicides, others accuse him of overstepping democratic boundaries. His decision to declare a state of war against drug gangs and deploy the military has been particularly contentious, with critics warning of the dangers of militarizing public security. Additionally, the power cuts and economic hardships of the past year have eroded public trust in his leadership. Analysts argue that Noboa must shift his strategy in the runoff, balancing his tough-on-crime image with a more inclusive and democratic approach to governance.

The Road Ahead: A Nation Divided

The outcome of the April 13 runoff election will have far-reaching implications for Ecuador’s future. With mandatory voting laws ensuring a high turnout, the contest will serve as a referendum on the nation’s Values and priorities. Can Correismo regain its footing, or will the anti-Correismo movement prevail? Will Noboa manage to reassure voters of his commitment to democracy, or will González succeed in channeling nostalgia for a bygone era into a vision for the future?

The next two months will be crucial. Both candidates must navigate a complex political landscape, appealing to swing voters while maintaining the support of their respective bases. The runoff will not only determine the next president of Ecuador but also set the tone for the nation’s political direction in the years to come. As the country grapples with crime, economic instability, and the legacy of Correa’s presidency, the choice Ecuadorians make will speak volumes about their aspirations for a safer, more prosperous, and inclusive future.