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Crime, Gangs, and Extortion: A Nation Gripped by Fear
Ecuador is grappling with a staggering crime wave that has left its citizens living in constant fear. Under President Daniel Noboa’s leadership, the homicide rate has shown a slight decline, dropping from 46.18 per 100,000 people in 2023 to 38.76 per 100,000 last year. However, this rate remains alarmingly high compared to the 6.85 per 100,000 recorded in 2019. Other crimes, such as kidnapping and extortion, have spiraled out of control, creating an atmosphere of dread that keeps people confined to their homes.
For many Ecuadorians, the situation feels untenable. Marta Barres, a 35-year-old mother of three, expressed her frustration with Noboa’s presidency, calling him “disastrous.” Barres, who pays $25 a month to a local gang to avoid harassment or worse, believes Noboa is incapable of reversing the tide of crime and economic stagnation. She pinned her hopes on his challenger, Danielle González, whom she trusts to tackle crime and improve the economy. Barres’s sentiment reflects the widespread disillusionment with Noboa’s administration, despite his efforts to curb violence.
Noboa’s rise to power began in 2023 after a snap election triggered by former President Guillermo Lasso’s decision to dissolve the National Assembly and shorten his own mandate. Noboa, a political newcomer, defeated González in a runoff, securing the presidency. González, a former protégée of ex-President Rafael Correa, had only served briefly in the National Assembly before launching her campaign. The two candidates represented starkly different visions for Ecuador’s future, with Noboa’s tough-on-crime stance pitted against González’s promises of systemic reform.
Testing the Limits of Laws and Norms of Governing
Noboa’s tenure has been marked by controversial tactics that have drawn both criticism and admiration. At just 37, Noboa’s political career began in 2021 when he won a seat in the National Assembly. His background in business, including running an event organizing company and managing parts of his family’s Noboa Corp., seemed an unlikely precursor to a presidency defined by hardline policies.
One of Noboa’s most contentious moves was declaring a state of internal armed conflict in January 2024, a decision that allowed him to deploy the military to areas controlled by organized crime. This move, while criticized for crossing legal and ethical boundaries, resonated with some voters who felt drastic measures were needed to combat skyrocketing crime. Similarly, his approval of a police raid on Mexico’s embassy in Quito to arrest former Vice President Jorge Glas, a fugitive and convicted criminal, raised eyebrows both domestically and internationally. Critics argue that such actions undermine the rule of law and set a dangerous precedent, while supporters view them as bold steps to dismantle criminal networks.
Retiree German Rizzo, who voted for Noboa’s reelection, summed up the sentiment of many supporters: “Noboa is the only person hitting organized crime hard.” This perception, however, is far from universal. Many Ecuadorians believe Noboa’s heavy-handed approach is either ineffective or-potentially counterproductive, as it risks eroding trust in institutions and exacerbating human rights concerns.
A Divided Electorate: Voters Weigh Their Options
The 2024 election highlighted the deep divisions within Ecuadorian society. To win outright, a candidate needed 50% of the vote or at least 40% with a 10-point lead over the closest competitor. With over 100,000 police officers and military personnel deployed across the country, the election was conducted under tight security. Noboa, accompanied by a heavy escort, cast his ballot in the coastal town of Olón, where he lives with his wife and young son.
González, who had served in various government roles during Correa’s presidency, emerged as a dark horse candidate. Despite her lack of widespread recognition before the election, she managed to gain significant traction, particularly among voters disenchanted with Noboa’s policies. González’s campaign capitalized on her association with Correa, who remains a polarizing figure in Ecuadorian politics. While Correa’s free-spending, socially conservative policies and increasingly authoritarian style alienated many, his base remains loyal, and González’s candidacy reinvigorated his political movement.
Maria Cristina Bayas, a professor at Quito’s University of the Americas, called the election result “a triumph” for Correa’s party, as pre-election polls had predicted a wider margin between Noboa and González. This unexpected competitiveness suggests that González’s campaign successfully mobilized disaffected voters and tapped into broader dissatisfaction with Noboa’s administration.
‘Things Are Not Going to Change’: Voter Pessimism and Disillusionment
Despite the high stakes of the election, many Ecuadorians expressed a sense of hopelessness about the country’s future. Keila Torres, a 25-year-old architecture student, captured the mood of widespread disillusionment. “If I could, I wouldn’t be here,” she said, referring to the voting process. Torres, who had witnessed three robberies on public buses in the past four years and narrowly escaped a carjacking in December, doubted that either candidate could address the root causes of crime and corruption. “Things are not going to change,” she sighed.
Torres’s skepticism reflects the belief held by many Ecuadorians that systemic corruption and inefficiency within the government make meaningful reform impossible. This pessimism is compounded by the personal toll of crime, which has touched nearly every family in some way. For Marta Barres, the daily act of paying extortion money to local gangs is a grim reminder of the state’s inability to protect its citizens. While she held out hope that González might bring change, others have lost faith in the political system altogether.
The Election’s Outcome and Its Implications
The election’s tight race and the strong showing by González’s campaign suggest that Noboa’s support base may have reached its limit. Esteban Ron, dean of the Faculty of Social and Legal Sciences at the International University SEK in Quito, noted that Noboa will need to reassess his strategy to broaden his appeal. Ron attributed the election’s outcome to the challenges Noboa faced during his administration, particularly his handling of crime and the economy.
For now, Noboa’s heavy-handed approach to crime continues to polarize the nation. While some see him as a strong leader willing to take tough decisions, others fear that his tactics are undermining Ecuador’s democratic foundations. As the country moves forward, the question remains whether Noboa or any future leader can address the deep-seated issues driving crime and corruption without sacrificing the principles of governance.
In the end, the election underscored the profound challenges facing Ecuador. From skyrocketing crime rates to widespread disillusionment with the political class, the nation is at a crossroads. Whether the next four years will bring meaningful change or more of the same remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the hopes and fears of Ecuadorians hang in the balance.
