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Summary of Desjardins’ Report on Population Targets
A recent report from Desjardins, Canada, highlights that while the government’s plan to slow population growth is beginning to work, it is yet to achieve its target of reducing temporary resident volumes to less than 5% of the general population. The report, submitted on Thursday, builds on earlier findings from statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey, noting signs of a slowdown in the influx of newcomers since immigration targets were revised. Using data from its economic analyst LJ Valencia and deputy chief economist Randall Bartlett, the report calculates that despite year-over-year population gains remaining high, month-over-month growth has significantly slowed, with the fastest decline reported among the latest immigrants. According to the report, the current number of non-permanent residents entering the country will not allow Ottawa to meet its target of limiting temporary residents to less than 5% of the population. The report states that its updated population projections suggest that non-permanent residents accounted for approximately 7.5% of the population by the end of 2024.
Updates and Findings from Desjardins
In October 2024, the federal government introduced plans to reduce the number of permanent residents, one of the changes aimed at freezing population growth. The updates included new levels for temporary residents: 445,901 from 2024 to 445,662 by 2026. Desjardins estimates that a quarter of the year-end figures, including net non-permanent residents, dropped this year, but the total increase surpasses what had been previously forecast. Its updated projection suggests that non-permanent residents comprised approximately 7.5% of the population by 2024.
The National Outlook and Skepticism
Desjardins and the reported findings suggest that population growth in Canada may decline considerably. The government remains skeptical about whether it will achieve the admission targets for permanent residents. Additionally, Desjardins acknowledges that it is still uneasy about setting a trajectory for a significant increase in non-permanent resident admissions, noting concerns that outside pressure may influence such policies. The report warns that negative outcomes, such as siphoning off resources or wealthy segments of the population from the economy, could expedite meeting these targets.
Other Factors and Future Concerns
However, whileDesjardins’ focus is on population targets, the situation is not without risks. The report suggests that factors such as Planning Canada pushing for unfilled labor shortages could worsenopoetry. Other nations, including the USA, have been under pressure for years due toGettingaid policies. The financial institution cautions if tariffs from the USA, an influx of temporary labor, or other factors could cause Canada to slip into a recession. While theualiary impact could help Canada meet its targets more quickly, it is unclear at this stage whether these risks will be mitigated by temporary labor demand.
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Looking ahead, Canada is in an “unintended consequence of an undesirable outcome” for the economy, according to the report. This metaphor underscores how theととも by incoming workers could provide a boost to target sustainability. However, tariffs from the USA could also hinder Canada’s ability to meet its population targets. The financial institution cautions if tariffs become a factor, even if they trigger a recession tied to temporary labor demand.
Breakthrough in Canada
When they first released its report, these figures and findings were a major existential crisis for Canada. The financial institution added that Desjardins’ outlook on non-permanent residents may incite concern over the possibility of meeting its targets. Since the report’s area of focus, there have been developments to address concerns about over-employment andresource allocation. However, these developments remain slow and marred by the fact thatDesjardins still needs to adapt and find ways to attract and retain incoming non-permanent residents. The report’s findings suggest that Canada is at a crossroads, with both hope and skepticism reining in its fate.
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