Market Data
Investors will face a tougher but more opportunity-focused market in 2026, according to the chief executive of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory firms. The year ahead, he says, will reward judgment and discipline rather than passive positioning.
Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, believes investors who prepare for complexity will be better placed to protect and grow wealth. He argues that markets now favour careful selection and execution over broad exposure.
Global markets have adjusted to higher interest rates, geopolitical tension, and fast-moving technological change. These shifts have reshaped how assets are priced and how companies are judged.
This adjustment, he explains, has made market signals clearer and drawn a sharper line between firms that deliver results and those that rely on expectations alone.
“Opportunity isn’t disappearing, it’s becoming more precise.”
Looking ahead, Nigel Green points to three forces that will shape investment outcomes in 2026. These are the shift of AI from promise to performance, the growing influence of a small group of market leaders, and price swings driven by policy decisions.
He says each of these trends creates openings for investors who remain engaged rather than stepping back.
AI moves from ambition to accountability
Artificial intelligence continues to drive large-scale corporate spending. Over the past two years, companies have invested heavily in data centres, computing power, research, and deployment.
The focus has now shifted to outcomes.
“Markets are no longer paying for potential alone,” says Nigel Green. “They’re paying for delivery and performance.”
AI-linked revenue growth remains uneven, and costs stay high. Some firms are turning investment into cash flow and stronger margins, while others struggle with scale and pricing.
The deVere CEO expects this gap to widen in 2026.
“Execution separates leaders from laggards,” he notes. “This creates clearer opportunity for investors who focus on fundamentals rather than hype.”
He adds that this stage supports the long-term case for AI by placing value on efficiency, discipline, and realistic delivery.
Market concentration sharpens selection
Equity markets continue to rely on a small group of dominant companies. This concentration increases sensitivity to earnings updates but also clarifies where leadership sits.
“When leadership is narrow, analysis matters more,” says Nigel Green. “Strength is visible, and weakness is exposed quickly.”
Prices now adjust faster. Companies that meet expectations see clear rewards, while those that fall short face swift repricing. The divide between leaders and the rest continues to grow.
In this setting, broad exposure offers less protection.
“Dispersion creates opportunity,” he adds. “It rewards those willing to back quality and move away from comfort.”
Policy volatility creates entry points
Policy decisions remain a major driver of market movement. Interest rate expectations continue to shape risk appetite, while inflation trends differ across regions and economic data remains mixed.
Nigel Green says this uncertainty does not remove opportunity.
“Volatility driven by policy creates entry points. Repricing is where opportunity emerges.”
Trade policy also plays a role. Sudden tariff decisions earlier this year caused sharp market moves, showing how sensitive sentiment remains. Global supply chains continue to adjust, especially for firms with international reach.
Fiscal policy adds further pressure. Tax support has lifted earnings but raised expectations. Investors now focus more closely on how durable that growth is once temporary measures fade.
Taken together, these forces point to a market that reacts quickly and rewards selectivity rather than one that lacks stability.
“I believe in 2026 we’ll see that strong returns don’t require calm conditions,” the deVere Group CEO concludes.
“They require judgment, discipline, and the confidence to act when pricing adjusts.”
